most people in the IT industry will be jobless then.........time to search for new jobs
arent we already jobless enough - posting on forums n all
j/k.
But seriously i've been reading such articles for quite some time now - say early 2008 and nothing has happened to the $ - it has only appreciated.
Well, one aspect of this debate is that even if the $ depreciates w.r.t. other international currencies, it may not necessarily depreciate w.r.t INR. There're many reasons and even the experts have limited idea. If the Indian economy doesnt grow as fast as it's predicted or enters a real prolonged recession, the rupee wont do too well.
Our imports include a large quantum of oil for which we must pay in hard currency. At present, OPEC is happily accepting both $ and Euro - Iran leading the bandwagon for a Euro only regime. However, irrespective of which currency we need to import oil in, we do have to pay. And the faster we grow, the higher the oil tab! So again, INR-$ equation may not be as rosy.
In the 6 month+ horizon, there may be a sharp, short devaluation of the dollar. This is most likely if the current TARP fund fueled 'false recovery' loses the flavor of the markets that it seems to be becoming. Further, the impact of current joblosses on consumer spending hasnt even kicked in. In the united states, most people recieve government largesse of some kind for upto six months post unemployment. If these people are unable to find jobs by end of this year, you would notice a loss of faith in the united states economy - but the flight of capital will be only to other safe haven currencies. Unfortunately, there're almost no 'safe havens' left - ergo investors will mostly repatriate funds at home leading to some erosion.
I could go on here with a counterpoint regarding dollar not collapsing at all - but its getting late ... and besides, this is an audio forum
