I don't see this happening. In the US, Comcast and DishTV exists side by side. Comcast has equal (if not more) customers that DTV and it offers all channels in HD. Comcast internet runs over the same cables. Even Verizon offers its cable over their FiOS optical n/w. Dish is good for places where it is expensive or impractical to run cables. Otherwise, a good insulated coaxial/optical cable is the most reliable conductor of HD.
The situation in the US is completely different. There is a well laid underground network that carries not only TV, but Internet, gas, phones and a lot of other information. In addition, in the US, well established companies own the distribution channels. These and the TV companies have a lot of interest in each other and will ensure that their investments are not wasted. In other words, the source and distribution comes from the same interested entity. The last mile distribution is extremely organized and of equal quality as of DTH.
In India, the situation is different. There is a lot of politics involved. For example the Maharashtra ruling party has a lot of interest (and maybe even some investment) in Zee network. Here in TN, the ruling DMK used to own Sun, and now owns Kalaingyar TV. In the North companies such as Sahara have huge political interest.
The distribution channel through cables is extremely disorganized, and in many places, owned by ruling MLAs and their henchmen. These are fly by night operators. they will be here one day, and will disappear the next day. I have even seen cases of these operators cutting each other's cables
Since Sun got out of DMK, there has been a huge battle here. The Corporation of Chennai has passed an ordinance that all overhead cables will be pulled down by December, irrespective of who owns it. Many campaniles have scrambled to lay underground pipes, but these are more for Internet and phones, rather than TV, as the last mile is yet controlled by the small time operators. SIFY, for example, is finding it a huge hassle to work with these last mile operators, and is switching to wireless for broadband across the country.
Other cities are following suit. It suits the ruling parties to say they are cleaning their act. At the same time, they want to ensure that their own message reach as many people as possible.
The Central Government is also contemplating some ordinances to control the distribution of TV through cables. This is to control pornography as well as to ensure that terrorists do not misuse the distribution channel. In Delhi and smaller cities in the North, Cable TV operators show 2x and 3x movies with impunity. If you give them money they will show anything. Any many times, NOT show what is important like it happened with the recent cricket matches.
Like India went digital for mobile directly, I feel we will go the DTH way very quickly. I see more and more people switching. With competition such as Big TV coming in, prices will drop, and the day is not far away when you will have 100 channels for 150 a month.
No cable operator can beat that. And there is huge political and commercial interests in wiping these guys out.
Cheers